The Newark by-election seems intriguingly poised.
A Sun/Survation poll on Friday put the Tory candidate, Robert Jenrick, in first place on 36%, with Ukip second on 28% and Labour on 27%.
The UKIP candidate is Roger Helmer, whose bigoted views on issues such as homosexuality and rape are well known.
I wondered whether some Labour (and Lib Dem and Green etc) voters might be tempted to vote tactically. But here I found it being suggested that Labour voters might vote tactically – for UKIP.
This report expresses more uncertainty about how tactical voting might play in Newark:
The party has little sense of what the 20,000 or so people who backed Labour and the Lib Dems in 2010 will do. One Tory official told me: “We are taking nothing for granted. We simply don’t know at this stage what Labour and Lib Dem voters will do.” They could stay at home; they could back UKIP; or they could vote tactically to keep UKIP out. No one knows. In other words, this election could be close.
The result on 5 June may provide a revealing indication as to whether – and how – left of centre voters are prepared to switch allegiance.
