After barely eighteen months there is unbridled speculation about the future of the PM and polls suggesting Nigel Farage’s third vehicle, Reform UK, could take him to No.10.
Immediately after returning from the Palace Starmer pledged to ”tread more lightly on your lives”.
If you read no further take away one thing, membership of the Free Speech Union has tripled since the election as we now have an intolerant, authoritarian and censorious government.
Here endeth the first lesson.
Bequeathed a poor inheritance – although they don’t mention the economic havoc wrought by Covid and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – they’ve made things worse. The reason is simple….they’re mediocre. On the centenary of Margaret Thatcher’s birth I asked ”are there still titans?” and that’s an open question.
In 2020 Johnson looked like a two-term PM and Starmer’s task was to decorbynise Labour, although he was probably also expected to lose an election and be replaced. Three PMs in 2022 destroyed the Conservative brand and put Starmer on an unstoppable path to No. 10.
Governments, like fish, rot from the head and Starmer is a technocratic middle manager. Trump has MAGA/America First, what does Starmer believe in?
Here endeth the second lesson.
The missteps started with paying off the junior/resident doctors and train drivers. Previously, an approaching election meant little incentive to settle as they’d get a better, and no-strings, deal with Labour.
I can, exclusively, reveal Labour’s negotiating strategy:
“What do you want?”
“Here you are.”
and which has now been seen repeatedly.
Here endeth the third lesson.
We now know the language used around north London dining tables, demonstrating what a cesspit “progressive” politics has become. Elections are won by putting together a coalition which almost immediately starts disintegrating and a volatilie electorate means that far more votes are up for grabs.
Terms like “far right”, “racist”, “fascist” and “Nazi” have become so degraded as to be effectively meaningless but, nonetheless, alienate like Clinton’s “basket of deplorables”. Whilst there are some rotten apples it’s unlikely these describe the almost third of the electorate supporting Reform, some of whom previously supported Labour.
Here endeth the fourth lesson.
Whether there was a £22bn “black hole” and, if there was, should Labour have been aware of it and how much was caused by paying off the unions, largely depends upon the colour of your rosette.
Notwithstanding that, the cack-handed way they’ve gone about raising money is an exemplar – of how not to do it! There’s a case for targeting the Winter Fuel Allowance but, as several commentators suggested, taxing it was a simple option that would have raised something whereas the mess netted little but cost much! The Family Farm Tax, with a partial U-turn, and VAT on private school fees are unlikely to raise much.
Here endeth the fifth lesson.
Sophistry was on steroids to try and justify increasing employer NICs – a job destroying, inflation increasing and growth slowing tax – whereas it might have been better to bite the bullet and raise income tax, as was trailed but not implemented for the second budget. This would have been one big fight rather than several small ones. As it is they’re hit with a triple whammy; poorly thought out policies, stubbornness and U-turning.
Here endeth the sixth lesson.
They’re a party of the public sector and find controlling spending difficult. Too many believe that the more they spend the more they care, the failed cuts to benefits like PIP demonstrate this. They inherited a system that had some abuse and was too generous in places; an easy argument to win and the Tories could be blamed, but they blundered in, their backbenchers revolted, they U-turned and then set up a review that won’t save anything!
Many on the centre-right accept that a centre-left government would be better able to address the frightening trends but they blew it and things will worsen.
They start with what they think, for example, the NHS – an insatiable black hole – needs and hope that the private sector will fund it.
Wishing won’t raise anything, the private sector chooses what, when and where to invest. The economy is barely growing and the bureaucracy and costs of the employment rights bill are still to come.
Direction of travel matters and when Reeves refused to rule out further tax rises in 2026 it looks like she expects the state, and its costs, to continue increasing.
Reversing the direction of travel by reining in spending and reducing the tax and bureaucratic burdens on the private sector would probably result in growth. I’m happy to be proven wrong and, although inflation may have peaked and interest rates are falling, it’s unlikely the economy will do much better in 2026.
Here endeth the seventh lesson.
A government losing support will try and placate different groups without a coherent plan.
Mahmood is talking tough on immigration – which Reform minded voters will love, but those tending towards the Greens will hate. Phillipson is sitting on the EHRC single sex spaces guidance, apparently to try and find a way to appease the Trans Rights Activists – Greens will love it but Reformites and Islamists will hate it, and Reed has a definition of Anti-Muslim hostility (renamed from Islamophobia but still problematic) which, obviously!, the Islamists and Greens will love but Reformites will hate.
Here endeth the eighth lesson.
As for the others……
LibDems
Next!
Conservatives
Badenoch has possibly the worst job in politics but she and her team have used their time well. Opposition provides time to reflect and think but they have a hangover from government which will take time to shake off.
Reform
The Conservatives’ crushing defeat and the subsequently dismal performance of Labour left a space into which Reform expanded, more than doubling their vote in the ten months before the 2025 local elections.
They’re the UK’s largest party, are developing a national structure and doing well at by-elections, they look to be in a virtuous spiral. They’ve had an influx of former Conservatives and while Danny Kruger may be an asset it’s difficult to see to what question Nadine “Boris walks on water” Dorries is the answer.
Greens
Long fronted by the middle class, privately educated Caroline Lucas their extremism hid behind a facade of, mostly harmless, bicycling and recycling.
An influx of Corbynistas exacerbated antisemitism and under Polanski they’re an economically incontinent, woke – gender ideology cost them a discrimination case against a former deputy leader and their lawyers have warned against discriminating against members who hold legally protected views – anti-Israel and open borders party.
The previously Conservative voters of North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley may have buyers remorse but there is a market for this sort of thing. Their polling has improved, they have more councillors than Reform, their membership exceeds the Conservatives’ and may overtake Labour.
Their limit is probably about 15%, maybe 20%, primarily in metropolitan areas/university towns but this may depend upon Labour’s fortunes. They can certainly increase their Westminster presence.
Gaza Independents
This type of sectarian politics was thought a thing of the past and is testament to failed policies on immigration, integration and Islamism. It’s not surprising a socially liberal party would have difficulty retaining predominantly socially conservative voters and the Israel/Palestine situation contributed. The number and concentration of Muslims means there is scope for more MPs although the situation in the Middle East may affect this.
Your Party (aka Fruit and Nut Party)
Nothing demonstrated the accuracy of Monty Python’s Judean People’s Front satire like attempting to join socially liberal hard-left “progressives” with socially conservative Muslims when the only commonality is antisemitism and hatred of Israel.
Losing half of the Gaza Independents during the party’s gestation was careless and they’re largely fishing in the same pond as the Greens, suggesting they’re unlikely to achieve much.
Looking to 2026….
Labour are under assault by the Greens, Islamists, Reform and, to some extent, the LibDems, none of which are really fishing in the same pond. In 2024 the LibDems overwhelmingly prospered at the expense of the Conservatives but history has shown them adept at getting votes almost anywhere. The Greens and Islamists are both urban parties, probably contesting complimentary areas, and different from those likely to favour Reform.
Some see Reform as a one-man-band and one-trick-pony. The Democrats threw the kitchen sink at Trump, and many lefties are obsessed with Farage, but without dealing with the underlying issues populists will arise.
Immigration has served Farage and Reform well. Some lefties make the, accepted, case that it’s beneficial to parts of the economy but then try to extrapolate from the particular to the general, and there are those who claim the small boats are mostly full of refugees – from France!
This can be tested, deal with immigration with a further crackdown on legal migration and stopping the small boats.
Net migration fell to 204,000 for the year to June 2025 but significant emigration contributed to this which means that it’s also important to address the absolute numbers entering.
“Smash the gangs” has failed, but deterrents work; a return agreement all but stopped Albanians. Making it ”like betting on a rank outsider, not a one-horse race” will stop people paying and put the gangs out of business.
There’s time to work through the obstacles, legislating as necessary, although it’s uncertain whether backbenchers would support what’s necessary. If the small boats stop, the theory can be tested, if not they’re “a continual demonstration of the government’s impotence.”
The May 2026 elections are predicted as decisive for both Starmer and Badenoch but time will tell.
Badenoch has improved and a replacement would be the sixth leader in the ten years since Cameron. It’s difficult to replace Labour leaders/PMs and who, from a large but talentless pool, would succeed Starmer and, unless they prioritise the private sector, they’re unlikely to get growth to fund the public sector.
Barring resignations, both could still be in place this time next year.
The tracker poll, from Election Maps, shows the LDs aren’t doing much and Labour’s steady decline is obvious, as is the Green growth under Polanski. Reform have been declining and the Conservatives increasing for the last few months of 2025.
It will be interesting to see what prevails in 2026.
In the longer term the Right should worry that in the event of a hung parliament the LibDems, Greens and Islamists, and probably the SNP, would – subject to conditions – prop up a minority Labour government.
This doesn’t mean that there should, potentially three and a half years from an election, be a rush to “unite the right” but it’s important to remember that the objective isn’t ideological purity or the stroking of egos but the replacement of an appalling government.
My recommendation for 2026 is to look at shares in pollsters as I think they’ll be busy!
