This is a cross-post from All That Is Solid
With the polls bouncing all over the place and only a few daft enough to make predictions about the general election, there’s a lot of coalition talk doing the rounds. The SNP and Greens – wisely – have ruled out any arrangement with the Conservatives. And Farage has ruled out a deal with Labour (thanks for that, Nige: it makes it that bit easier for us to paint your lot as a Tory home from home). Dave hasn’t said no to a kiss-in with UKIP, and Ed has said nothing at all. With a majority for either of the two main parties looking a big ask, the manoeuvrings between the major and the minor parties is set to be the stuff of soap operas. A dull and uninspired story line, yes, but the personal relationships between leading figures are about to be pored over like never before.
There is one possible coalition combination, however, that dare not speak its name. It is so unthinkable and electorally toxic that few if any politicians would dare ponder it. That would be a grand coalition of the left and the right, of the Conservatives and Labour sitting around the same cabinet table. Awful, but plausible? I’d been meaning to write about this for a couple of weeks since reading Miles’s prediction last month, and then on Friday former Dave speechwriter Ian Birrell ventured the possibility too. A perspective each from the left and the right. Is there anything to them?
Miles’s argument is quite short: there is more uniting the two main parties that divide them. On issue after issue there is a unanimity of opinion. Springing to mind is the unseemly gutter wallowing of immigrant bashing, feeding an irrational fear of crime in long-term decline and, you might add, scapegoating everyone who has to get by on social security in some way. They also share a diagnosis of deficit dementia, a supernatural belief in the power of markets, and an equally pious faith that the cold war holdover of Trident remains appropriate. Ian’s piece suggests that the post-election alignment of forces might be too tricky for a coalition to be built, let alone held. The price UKIP would likely demand would be an EU referendum in short order, something Dave is unlikely to accept. The SNP, as argued by Atul Hatwal, would use their position to secure another referendum in the short term too – a price too high for a Labour-led administration. Whoever wins are possibly prisoners of their backbenchers too. Throughout this parliament, the Tory story has been one of Dave dealing with his revolting MPs. He might have had to treat with a few rebellious ones too, fnar. There’s no reason to believe they would show discipline should he head up another coalition. And some backbench Labourites who, on the whole, have not been unseemly enough to manoeuvre openly so far might choose to be more conspicuous if Ed gets his feet under the Prime Minister’s desk.
Looking at these circumstances first, are they insurmountable? In his excitement, Ian overlooks one possible coalition partner: the Liberal Democrats. In the worst case scenario, the coming LibDem wipeout might see them reduced by about half to between 20 and 30 seats. A well-deserved kicking to be sure, but still enough to be a going concern in future coalition building. Some in their parliamentary party would be quite happy to carry on with Dave, though I suspect another deal with the Tories would cause Dave even more botherwith his back benchers than governing alone as a minority government would. As for the LibDems, it could well kill them. Their passage to rehabilitation requires a strict detox regimen. Either going alone in a pick ‘n’ choose arrangement with one of the main parties sitting as a minority or, weirdly, buddying up with Labour in a coalition could do both these things.
Do read the rest of Phil’s post here
