It’s still not clear exactly which Syrian military facilities Israel struck on Mt. Qasioun near Damascus Sunday morning, or how much damage was done. But it is clear that whatever debate there was in Israeli government circles about whether a victory in the civil war for Bashar al-Assad or for the rebels would be better for Israel has been settled in favor of the armed opposition.
Israel’s stated aim is to prevent transfer of arms which could be used against Israel from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon. But the effects of this latest strike are– potentially at least– more wide-ranging.
James Miller at EA WorldView writes:
This strike took place within days of another Israeli airstrike that apparently targeted a shipment of rockets en route from the Syrian military to Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon.
Some analysts have said that a stockpile of rockets, made in Iran and bound for Lebanon, was the target of this second strike.
However, this analysis ignores the fact that several important military installations appear to have been the targets of this most recent strike.
The Syrian government claimed that a military research facility was struck (map). In addition, there have been many videos of the explosions, taken from many different angles, which suggest that a much wider range of targets, across a wider area of the military installation, were struck and not simply a convoy of rockets.An initial analysis by Stroyful’s Félim McMahon suggests that the research facility itself was not hit, but rather the nearby headquarters of the 104th Brigade. Beyond this, videos suggest that huge stockpiles of weapons, likely artillery shells and ballistic/artillery rockets, were also destroyed in the airstrike.
The 104th Brigade is an elite group of Republican Guards tasked with defending one of the most sensitive areas of Assad’s defense network in the capital.
The precise locations of the targets are still being nailed down and confirmed, but some insurgent leaders are reporting that an even wider stretch of area was hit:
IAF raided 12 targets including units of 4th division and air force intelligence without penetrating Syrian airspace.
— Murhaf Jouejati (@mjouejati) May 5, 2013
The 4th Armored Divion is Assad’s most important unit, run by his brother, Rifaat Al Assad. If the 4th Armored Division was indeed the target of the airstrike, this is a major blow to Assad and to the regime.
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The message to Assad is clear. If the regime continues to move rockets across the border to aid Hezbollah, Israel will not only strike at the immediate threat, but will deal serious body blows to the regime, severely hampering Assad’s efforts to counter Syria’s insurgency.
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This incident should also permanently put to rest the debate as to whether Assad’s air defense is capable of standing up to external threats. Assad is completely vulnerable, and has been dealt a serious blow. As a result, Israel may have completely changed the debate about foreign intervention in a single instant, and may have catalyzed an international drive to remove Bashar al-Assad from power.
There’s a further report that one target of the strike was an installation staffed by Iranian Revolutionary Guard personnel.
Michael Weiss has been doing some good tweeting on the attack.
George Galloway has been tweeting up a storm while watching “Dirty Dancing.”
As I told you last week we are now in a new middle east war. The Lebanese resistance will answer Israel’s attack on Damascus, today
— George Galloway (@georgegalloway) May 5, 2013
What a Coalition! Israel-Al Qaeda-crusader powers. And sectarian “Islamists” who can’t see the wood for the trees…
— George Galloway (@georgegalloway) May 5, 2013
Syria’s foreign minister announced that Israel is working in full coordination with the “terrorists” fighting to topple the Assad regime.
In response Michael “reported”:
“Sources tried to contact al-Qaeda leader Aymenn al-Zawahiri at his registered address in Tel Aviv. He could not be reached for comment.”
— michaeldweiss (@michaeldweiss) May 5, 2013
A reminder that no one should feel badly about Assad’s military capabilities being degraded by Israel or anyone else (very graphic):
Leaked footage of Assad’s forces piling up dozens of corpses in Bayada before burning them. fb.me/2mlalbEd8
— Syrian Scenes (@Syrian_Scenes) May 5, 2013
And here (also very graphic).
