Is the “surge” working?

Robert Kagan seems to think so.

There have been too many false “turning points” in Iraq for me to agree with him without more evidence. And even if the surge is having an effect, there’s no guarantee it will be lasting.

Perhaps at this point the main division of opinion would be not so much between “pro-war” and “anti-war” as between those who hope (with varying degrees of skepticism) that Kagan is right and those who are smugly sure he is wrong.