Translated by Anglophobe
The following geopolitical analysis by retired IDF General Itzhak Brik appeared in Ha’aretz a couple of days ago.
US President Donald Trump’s moves are weakening Israel and will cause its isolation in the Middle East. They pose an existential risk — security and economic — to the State of Israel. From an analysis of the strategic implications of the Trump administration’s policy on Israel’s status, the picture that emerges is of a paradigm shift: if in the past the US tried to build a regional alliance around Israel (such as the Abraham Accords), now it is backing a dominant Turkish-Sunni axis, which is pushing Israel to the margins.
Trump is strengthening Turkey as a “contractor” for the US. Trump’s “America First” policy aims to reduce direct military involvement in the Middle East. To fill the vacuum, Trump is turning to Erdogan’s Turkey, which is a strong regional power (a member of NATO that has the second-largest army in the alliance). How does this affect Israel? Trump sees Erdogan as a friend and strategic partner. US backing, including billions of dollars in security and high-tech investments in Turkey, gives Erdogan the resources to expand his influence in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon—areas where Israel has critical security interests.
Trump is driving the formation of a Turkish-Saudi-Pakistani axis which drives the security isolation of Israel. One of the most worrying moves is Turkey’s apparent accession to the security agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan (September 2025), for Pakistan is a nuclear state. The combination of Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities, Saudi Arabia’s wealth, and Turkey’s military-technological power creates a Muslim “mega-axis”. And this is an axis that operates in coordination with Washington, and without Israel’s participation. The more Saudi Arabia tightens its security ties with Turkey (with Trump’s support), the less motivated it is to fully normalize relations with Israel, as it receives an alternative regional “security umbrella” that does not require it to pay a political price vis-à-vis the Muslim world. The combination of Trump’s interests (withdrawal and transfer of responsibility) with Erdogan’s ambitions for hegemony creates a new strategic reality: Israel finds itself facing a powerful Sunni axis, backed by Pakistani nuclear weapons and Saudi money.
Trump’s policy is meting a fatal blow to Israel’s economy (the energy angle). Israel has spent a decade building its position as an “energy bridge” between the Gulf and Europe (via Greece and Cyprus). Trump’s policy, which encourages investments in Turkish infrastructure, threatens to make Israel irrelevant, since the Turkish corridor — Saudi investments in gas routes through Syria to Turkey and from there to Europe — is a cheaper and shorter alternative to the Israeli route. Such a scenario could also cause the collapse of the IMEC project. This economic corridor project (India-Middle East-Europe), on which many hopes were pinned in Israel, may be replaced by routes that bypass Israel, thus eroding the geo-economic achievements of the Abraham Accords.
Trump is planning to put an end to US foreign aid to Israel. Trump has already made it clear to Benjamin Netanyahu that he does not intend to renew US foreign aid at the end of the current decade (in which Israel received $38 billion over ten years by virtue of a decision by the Barack Obama administration). It is inconceivable that Netanyahu would present this to the Israeli public as his decision. Instead of accepting the decree, which could spell disaster for Israel’s ability to strengthen its defenses, he should fight with all his might to have it revoked. In the huge budgetary hole created by the war, in the absence of US aid, there is no chance of rehabilitating the army and getting it back on its feet.
The strong anti-Israel rhetoric from Turkey narrows Israel’s room for maneuver. Erdogan does not hide his desire to annihilate the State of Israel or at least cause its complete isolation. When Trump strengthens Erdogan economically and politically, he gives him the green light to continue the anti-Israeli line, without paying a price. Even the collapse of Iran (as a result of Trump’s pressure) does not necessarily strengthen Israel, but rather serves as a catalyst for strengthening Turkey’s deterrence. Turkey claims the crown of hegemony, and it does so while adopting the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is fundamentally hostile to Israel. The conclusion is that the combination of Trump’s interests (withdrawal and transfer of responsibility) with Erdogan’s ambitions for hegemony creates a new strategic reality: Israel finds itself facing a powerful Sunni axis, backed by Pakistani nuclear weapons and Saudi money. This axis blocks its path to markets in Asia and Africa, and renders its importance as an energy axis redundant. Simply put: while Trump may see strengthening Turkey as a move towards regional stability, from Israel’s perspective it is a process of geopolitical isolation, in which its former allies (Saudi Arabia and the US) prefer the Turkish axis over the Israeli partnership.
