Hamas,  Hezbollah,  Israel/Palestine,  Terrorism

Nasrallah Speech Analysis

Hassan Nasrallah has given a much-anticipated speech. Many expected it to be an announcement of Hezbollah entering the war between Israel and Hamas-controlled Gaza.

Had Hamas been acquitting itself better – had Israel rolled into Gaza like a Russian column and fallen right into Hamas’s trap, and had Israel sent in an infantry invasion of Gaza City and been picked off by prepared urban guerrillas – Nasrallah would have delivered a different speech. It would most likely have announced Hezbollah’s epic entry into the glorious battle.

Instead, at this moment, Hamas seems to be getting the snot kicked out of them and Gaza City has been flattened, so he is keeping his distance. However – and this is a cautionary note – should Israel make a misstep and Hamas should appear to be gaining the upper hand, Hezbollah will be there in a shot!

Alternatively, the ‘Red Line’ is a big attack from Israel, an attack by the USA on them, or on Iran, and possibly the prospect of the complete destruction of Hamas, which is an important Iranian asset that they wouldn’t want to lose it. So it might escalate if there are missteps or accidents or change of circumstance.

Otherwise, as a wag noted, the whole speech amounted to 80 minutes of “thoughts and prayers”.