This is a guest post by Eyal
Some readers may have already forgotten, but not six weeks ago there were elections in Israel. And what has happened since then you ask? The answer is: well, not much.
Under Israeli law, after election results are finalized (this takes about a week), each party recommends to the President their candidate for Prime Minister, and the leader with the most votes then has four weeks to form a government. In case he/she is unsuccessful, a further two-week extension period can be granted, after-which the task falls to another politician, or new elections are called.
This year, not only did Netanyahu not face any serious challenger from the disunited left, but after elections he had a whopping 82 MK’s (out of 120) recommend him as PM. And still, no government.
The initial 4 week coalition period will expire tonight (Saturday), and he will ask the President for the two-week extension. So, what happened?
First past the post. First off, it should be mentioned that to say that Netanyahu hasn’t made any progress is inaccurate. In fact, he already has one party which has signed on to his coalition: Tzippi Livni’s “The Movement”. This is somewhat strange, as Livni is known for her pro-peace positions, her campaign was the most vehemently anti-Netanyahu (“Netanyahu – International Sanctions / Livni – Peace”), and one of her party members, former Labor party leader Amir Peretz, broke away from Labor because it would not commit not to join Netanyahu’s government. Livni herself refused to join Netanyahu’s government after the previous elections when she had 28 seats with the “Kadima” party, so joining in such circumstances, without knowing who the other partners will be and with only 6 seats has raised many eyebrows, to put it mildly. Before elections I rather liked Livni and Peretz, and even considered voting for them, but I think that in the next election they will be finished politically. But that still puts Netanyahu at least 24 seats away from forming a government.
The “natural partners”. Even though Netanyahu represents a mostly middle class and non-religious constituency of center/right Likud voters, he has formed in recent years an iron-clad alliance with the ultraorthodox parties. This was most evident after Ehud Olmert’s resignation in 2009, when they blocked Tzippi Livni from forming a new government, and then supported Netanyahu even though Likud had won fewer seats than she had. The return was continued funding and benefits for orthodox religious students and continued exemption from military service. This has become a very contentious issue, especially by middle-class secular voters who feel that the ultraorthodox aren’t bearing their share of “the burden”.
Nonetheless, apart from his own Likud party, Netanyahu considers the religious parties as his most reliable partners, and are therefore his favorite allies for government. Throughout the last 4 weeks Netanyahu has been trying at all costs to build political structures which will include the religious parties in the next government.
The new kid on the bloc. Former TV presenter Yair Lapid took the country by storm, running on a centrist, pro-middle class platform and championing the case of “equality in burden”. Although initially keen on Lapid, Netanyahu has grown cooler after a number of quotes hinting that Lapid intends to challenge Netanyahu in the next elections, and raising demands which effectively exclude the religious parties from government. He has been has been playing a game of ‘chicken’ with Netanyahu, and despite being a political new-comer, has so far outmaneuvered Netanyahu politically. Without Lapid, it is extremely difficult for Netanyahu to form a coalition. To make matters even worse, Lapid seems to have formed an air-tight alliance with the right-wing “Jewish Home” party.
“The Jewish Future”. This is the biggest surprise to come out of elections: the alliance between Lapid’s “There is a Future” party, and Naftali Bennett’s “Jewish Home”. At first glance, these parties couldn’t be any more different. Lapid’s party is markedly centrist and its voters are mostly urban, secular upper-middle class, whereas Bennett’s party is a hard (not to say extreme) right party, representing the settlements and religious (though not ultraorthodox) voters. However, on close examination there are many similarities, including in economic policy, army service for the orthodox, and even some agreements on policy towards the Palestinians. Perhaps most importantly, they seem to have formed a personal chemistry stronger than anything Netanyahu has to offer. This alliance, which has been dubbed by some pundits as “The Jewish Future”, represents a bloc identical in size to Netanyahu’s own party. As bloc, each party is so far refusing to enter government without the other party, effectively barring the ultra-orthodox parties from joining. With the Labor party refusing so far to enter Netanyahu’s government, without these two parties he does simply cannot form a government.
The anti-Bennett. It begs the question, therefore, how come Bennett’s right-wing religious party has chosen to throw its lot with Lapid’s secular centrist party over Netanyahu and the other religious parties. The answer seems to lie, in large part, in the personal relationship between Netanyahu and Bennett. In the earlier part of the 2000’s, Bennett and his party lieutenant, Ayelet Shaked, served as Netanyahu’s chief-of-staff and general secretary while he served as leader of the opposition. However, relations between the pair and Netanyahu (and especially his wife) soured to the point of full blown hatred by the Netanyahu’s of the two. In recent days, Bennett has been taking criticism by the right his alliance with Lapid, to which Bennett replies that without this alliance, Netanyahu wouldn’t have included him in his government in the first place.
Labor. Shelly Yehimovich’s Labor party has so far been mostly on the sidelines. Whereas Netanyahu is an ardent neo-liberal, Yehimovich ran on an economic platform of greater spending. Publically, she has stated loudly that she will not join government since the differences are too great between the parties. However, there are voices within the party which always seek to join a government. Any government. So one can never be entirely sure. For the moment, however, it seems that her repeated public statements have closed the door on that option.
So what now? Now this is my own pure speculation, but as I see it, Netanyahu has four basic options: give up on the ultraorthodox and form a coalition with Lapid and Bennett; pressure Bennett into breaking his alliance with Lapid; get Labor to break its promise and join the government; or go for new elections.
I’ll start with the last option – new elections. I personally think it’s extremely unlikely. Netanyahu’s continued alliance with the ultraorthodox is extremely unpopular, whereas Bennett and Lapid have been uncompromising on their platforms, which is always popular with voters. During and post- elections, Lapid took a lot of criticism from many observers, including myself in my previous post, who criticized him for his vague message and lack of experience. He shouldn’t count on my vote just yet, but I feel he has really shown something since then, and so do a lot of other people. Recent polls conducted in light of this possibility have shown Likud decreasing in power and Lapid and Bennett growing stronger. Netanyahu reads the same polls so I doubt he will take such a gamble.
The third option, of Labor joining the government, is a bit more likely. For Netanyahu it’s the best option, since it allows him to keep the ultraorthodox, and leave Lapid and Bennett in a fractured opposition from both left and right while he maintains the center. However, I think it is unlikely, for a number of reasons: the next budget requires severe cuts to public spending, which Labor has announced it opposes; joining Netanyahu’s previous government has proven disastrous for Labor in the past; Yehimovich, on a personal level, will probably prefer the opposition to being in such a government; and her public statements have painted Labor into a corner which it cannot get out of without a big public backlash. However, the same polls which have shown Likud getting weaker have also shown Labor going down, so if Netanyahu is able to convince Labor that he is serious on new elections, they may prefer to get a few concessions from Netanyahu and join the government rather than lose seats.
The near-last option is getting Bennett to break his alliance with Lapid, by picturing Bennett as obstructing a right-wing government led by Netanyahu. This has been increasingly evident in the past few days. However I believe that these efforts will fail, just as they have so far. The personal animosity of Netanyahu towards Bennett proves Bennett is probably right that without this alliance, he wouldn’t have been allowed in anyway. Moreover, the inclusion of the dovish Tzipi Livni makes it hard to paint it as a right-wing government, and Bennett has announced he will not sit with her in government.
The last option, therefore, is a coalition with Lapid and Bennett, and possibly Kadima and Livni as well, for a coalition of 62-70 seats (depending on the smaller parties which may be included). This is Netanyahu’s least desired option, since he dislikes both men and considers them potential electoral threats in the future. Without his ultraorthodox allies, essentially it will be their coalition, headed by Netanyahu. However, I think that this will be the eventual results, because the alternative will probably be new elections, and even Netanyahu knows that an undesired government is better than no government at all.
With two weeks left, we’ll soon find out one way or another.
