Guest post by DaveM
The Egyptian uprising, like the Lebanese one before it, took the world by surprise. Nobody saw it coming and no one’s quite sure where exactly it’s going.
Events in Egypt are being followed very closely in Iran, both by the regime and the opposition.
The regime is trying to portray the uprising as an updated version of the ’79 revolution, while the opposition see it, along with the Tunisian uprising, as similar to their protests following the fraudulent 2009 election.
The hardliners are involved in a balancing act where they have to make sure their public support for the overthrow of Mubarak’s regime doesn’t embolden Iranians to take to streets in order to overthrow theirs.
The Green Movement has taken advantage of this predicament by publicly asking the Interior ministry for a permit to march in support of the Egyptians and Tunisians, knowing that if it’s refused, the government’s propaganda is exposed as hollow.
Those inside Egypt are keeping their cards close to their chest, with the Muslim Brotherhood, in English, seeking to distance themselves from Ayatollah Khamenei’s speech about events in Egypt. In fact the Muslim Brotherhood’s English-language website reports that its editor-in chief-Khaled Hamza “criticized allegations and reiterations by some countries that the uprising was Islamic and denounced claims by the Iranian Supreme Leader Mr. Khamenai that the protests are a sign of an Islamic Awakening inspired by the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran.”
However Al Manar, the TV channel of Iran’s ally Hezbollah in Lebanon, emphasised the role of the MB: “The distinguishing feature [of events in Egypt] is that the banned Muslim Brotherhood has returned to the forefront and the Egyptian regime is compelled to enter into dialogue with it and recognize it as a central and fundamental force in the ongoing movement.”
The Al Manar newsreader goes on to say: “On Monday [7th Feb] afternoon the National Lebanese political parties and forces will hold a festival of solidarity with the Egyptian people in which the general secretary of Hizbullah Hassan Nasrallah will speak”.
Just as it has done in Lebanon and Gaza, the Iranian regime won’t hesitate to exploit any opportunity to gain a foothold in Egypt. Should this situation arise the opinions of the Egyptian people will concern the regime about as much as the results of the last Lebanese parliamentary elections.
On Friday Khamenei, after taking prayers in Tehran, took the unusual step of directly addressing Egyptians in Arabic, proclaiming that an Islamic awakening was taking place. As far as he’s concerned Egypt’s protests were not about freedom and economic conditions but were part of a religious and political power struggle against the west.
There hasn’t been much on this in the UK news. However some of the Arabic media has picked up on it. Al Arabiya contrasts Khamenei’s position on Egypt with Obama’s.
Reporter: “Perhaps those Egyptian demonstrators who are occupied in changing the future of their country don’t realize that their demonstrations are also changing the international reactions [to the events in Egypt], in bringing together and separating the opposite sides at the very same time. Very rarely does the Tehran of Khamenei and the Washington of Obama agree on one issue, however in this case it’s the necessity of immediate change in Egypt.
President Obama: “During my talks with Mubarak I made clear to him that a process of real change must take place and it must begin right now.”
Ayatollah Khamenei: “With Allah’s help and blessings the Egyptian people will achieve their Islamic revolution and progress forward, for there is no room for retreat or failure.”
Reporter: “Both of them addressed the Egyptian army albeit in different ways, with one calming and the other escalating.”President Obama: “We reject violence, therefore I would like to praise the Egyptian army on the professionalism and patriotism which it showed in protecting the demonstrators.”
Ayatollah Khamenei: [addressing the Egyptians in Arabic] “For he who is trembling in front of the Egyptian army must be the Zionist enemy and not the Egyptian people. Of that in which there is no doubt, the members of the Egyptian army, who are of the people and the sons of the people, will join with the masses [in overthrowing the government], Allah willing, with this pleasant experience repeating once again in Egypt [reference to Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution].”
Reporter: “While it appeared that Washington and Tehran are in agreement on the necessity for change in Egypt, they have different ideas on how they see Egypt’s future. US president Barack Obama empahsises the need for the path of change to lead to a democratic openness which excludes no one. While Khamenei considers that the dawn of a new Islamic revolution is breaking in Egypt.”
President Obama: “Everybody in Egypt must take part in the path of change and the opposition must have a voice in it. And this change must lead to free and fair elections and end with the formation of a democratic government which realizes the aspirations of the people.”
Ayatollah Khamenei: [now speaking in Persian] “These are the portents of an Islamic awakening inspired by [also means: derived from] the Iranian revolution which erupted in 1979.”
Newsreader: “The power of the change in Egypt has equally attracted the attention of both the East and West, except the picture of Egypt’s future, in the views of Tehran and Washington, is completely different.”
More from Khamenei’s speech here:
It would be foolish to underestimate the power, determination and ruthlessness of the Iranian regime in doing all that it can to get what it wants if given the opportunity. They’ve already got Gaza and Lebanon in their orbit, and they’ve now got one eye in on Egypt. The other one is focused on their own opposition.
