Gordon MacMillan,  UK Politics

Gordon Brown on course to win election

Despite what all the sceptics have said I’ve always suspected that as the General Election drew closer the Tory lead would continue to shrink as nagging doubts about the ability of an inexperienced Tory front bench to run the country in the face of such a deep recession bit home. And shrink it has.

The Sunday Times says that the Tory lead is crumbling. The paper says that Gordon Brown is on course to stay in 10 Downing Street as Prime Minister. It says the Tory lead has fallen to just two points. It has been falling steadily over the last two weeks as the focus on the economy and the Tory plans has intensified.

George Osborne’s fiscal plans have come under intense scrutiny in recent days and he suffered a public rebuke from more than 60 academics in a letter to the Financial Times. They warned that an immediate fiscal squeeze could jeopardise any recovery. This view was also backed by the International Monetary Fund, which gave backing to the government’s approach. The idea that the Tories are floundering fiscally appears to be taking root in the mind of the voting public. They’re worried.

The Sunday Times says the YouGov survey gives David Cameron just 37% against 35% for Labour. It is the closest gap for two years and comes after Brown has been through the mill first with Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt’s lame coup and then the bullying allegations. All that and Cameron can still not get a convincing lead.  Really that is as good as it will ever get.

The answer seems pretty clear. Say what you like. People are not convinced and the choice between an experienced Labour team and a bunch of spin friendly Conservatives with few ideas is clear.  Labour needs to continue to campaign on the weakness and sheer folly of Tory party policy as its new take hard look campaign is doing. It can still win.