The last few years have presented us with a spectacular amount of high drama and tension and 2024 was indeed a blockbuster year as predicted. From the dramatic chaos of exploding Hezbollah pagers to the bathos of Sinwar’s last moments feebly waving at a drone, to Donald Trump’s triumphant fist punching the air after an assassination attempt to the tragedy of the Southport massacre and its aftermath to the confusion of the Magdeburg Christmas market attack, possibly the world’s first ex-muslim terror attack, the current year has delivered more its fair share. Even as the war in Ukraine grinds on with no end in sight, the middle east has been reconfigured with the almost overnight collapse of the Syrian regime while the Iranian regime has received a body blow that has left it staggering. 2025 looks like a year of opportunity for the middle east: Lebanon and Syria are free to chart new courses without heavy-handed interference from neighbouring powers. Israel’s military prowess is without doubt and while its arab neighbours may hate it for the devastation of Gaza, they are also happy to see Israel lay the smack down on Iran. The middle east may not see a year like 2024 for decades to come, such is the scale of change upon it.
Then there were the elections of 2024. The biggest and the most controversial, the US elections, has passed with much less civil strife than many expected. That’s good news isn’t it? Trump’s incoming administration may well be a quarrelsome and chaotic one – it certainly has a cast of fiery divas and I expect quite a few to fall out with one another over the next few years if not months. I don’t think the US will annex Canada and the long predicted fascist dictatorship will not occur just yet but stateside politics will certainly keep our blood pressure up. India opted for stability and an unprecedented third term for Modi in its Lok Sabha elections. Foreign critics were delighted that the BJP fell short of a majority and that the Congress alliance did better than expected. Then they lost interest. If they had stayed the course they would have seen landslide victories for the BJP in Maharashtra and Haryana, so hindutva is still very much a resurgent force. Sri Lanka bucked the global rightward trend by going for a marxist President, while Bangladesh had a flawed election and then a much touted Gen Z aka State Department coup. Labour won the UK elections on a landslide – 411 seats on 33.7% of the votes cast. The way things are going for Labour and Keir Starmer in particular, they might almost regret winning so big. Labour has disappointed almost every cohort with broken promises and Starmer’s popularity ratings are beyond abysmal. France had a wholly unnecessary election and has already had one prime minister deposed and an embattled new one just days into his office. Most other elections saw the status quo reign. So something like 41% of the world’s population voted and things remained pretty much the same.
The award for the most pointless political caper of the year must of course go to South Korea’s shocking and thankfully short imposition of martial law. The martial law lasted barely a night, the president who imposed it is now impeached and even the acting President is facing impeachment. K-drama fans amongst the readers expect a lot of this stupid stunt to be retold in 2025 dramas. In a way it was even reassuring that the President pulled such a trick – the country’s institutions and people were tested and passed with flying colours.
How do you see 2025 shaping out? Trade wars, mass deportation of illegal migrants, more actual wars? The Donald taking over Greenland and the Panama Canal? Rogue AI disruptions to global transport and commerce and/or an Alien invasion? Another global pandemic? Free your inner conspiracy freak and let us know.
