The 2024 general election saw Reform UK return five MPs and it’s worth considering its historical context.
Over the last few centuries British political power has rotated between a conservative and a progressive party, although “progressive” simply means “not conservative”.
In the 19th century it was the Conservatives and the Liberals, the latter being replaced by Labour in the first quarter of the 20th.
The Labour Party
The electorate tripled between 1912 and 1918 and Labour, which elected its first MPs in 1900, was more attractive to new voters. The (divided) Liberals were in third place by 1922 and Labour formed its first (minority) government in 1923.
The SDP
Labour lost the 1979 election, elected Michael Foot as leader and moved left. This triggered the formation of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in 1981 which polled well, took some support from disaffected Conservatives, and won by-elections in Crosby in 1981 and Glasgow Hillhead in 1982.
The Falklands helped Thatcher in 1983 although the economy was picking up. The SDP fought the election with the Liberals as the “Alliance”, gaining 25.4% of the vote – and 23 seats, only slightly behind Labour’s 27.6% – but 209 seats.
This was their high water mark, Kinnock moved Labour back towards the centre, and in 1987 the “Alliance” got 22.6% – and 22 seats, Labour got 30.8% – and 229 seats.
The SDP and Liberals merged in 1988, eventually becoming the Liberal Democrats, and achieved 22% – and 62 seats, in 2005, and 23% – and 57 seats, in 2010.
They showed that they could get about a quarter of the popular vote, demonstrating the effects of First Past The Post (FPTP) which favours parties with “heartlands” and punishes those with relatively evenly distributed support. In 1983 their share was close to Labour’s, but the latter had concentrated votes which netted them far more seats. By the 2000s the LibDems had their own “heartlands” which gave them more than twice as many seats for similar vote shares.
The original aim was to supplant Labour but they actually contributed to changing it into New Labour. Their later successes came from being against whoever was in power locally and if they were in power they blamed Westminster for every ill.
This fell apart after 2010 when they were part of the Westminster government, returning only eight MPs in 2015, twelve in 2017 and eleven in 2019.
2024 showed a significant increase to 72 seats, but it’s where they might have been without five years in government.
UKIP
The United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) was formed in the early 1990s but started to progress after the 2004 enlargement of the European Union, and the significant underestimation by the Blair government of those seeking to come to Britain.
In 2005 the Conservatives campaigned on Are you thinking what we’re thinking [about immigration]?, but this was premature, and unsurprisingly described as racist.
The UKIP European Parliament election results show two phases: in 2004 they achieved 16% and came third, in 2009 it was 17% and second. In 2014 it shot up to 27.5% and first place.
This followed the defeat of the 2011 Alternative Vote referendum and was a year after starting the process that would lead to the 2014 Scottish independence referendum.
Referenda were then in vogue, although they sit uncomfortably in representative democracies.
Cameron prevailed in 2011 and 2014, albeit after a late fright, but had put down a marker in 2005, describing UKIP as ”fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists, mostly”.
He expected to succeed again, but wasn’t as astute as Wilson who chose his position carefully in 1975.
Migration started to make headlines in the early to mid 2010s, contributory factors included the Syrian Civil War, resulting in pressure on the EU’s eastern borders.
This helped UKIP, together with the inability of the Conservative-led coalition to control the numbers. They replaced the LibDems, who were then in government, as the main protest party, there are always some who seek a “none of the above” vote, after 2010 that was UKIP.
Their local government representation took off in 2013 when they came fourth with a projected national share of 22 or 23%.
In 2014 their projected share was 17 or 18%, placing them third, but they topped the poll in the 2014 European elections held the same day with 27.5% of the vote.
Following defections they won parliamentary by-elections in October and November 2014, one of which was retained in 2015.
On the basis that all publicity was good publicity, Farage was an asset; outspoken, provocative and controversial.
In 2014 the comedian Russell Brand expressed the “establishment” position, calling him a ”pound shop Enoch Powell”.
The vitriol directed against those concerned about immigration, invariably calling them “racist”, helped push social conservatives towards UKIP and Farage, who’d repeatedly have the last laugh.
The result of the 2016 referendum, and Cameron’s subsequent departure, is history.
UKIP’s local government presence shrank over the next few years, they were a one man band and one trick pony. Their aim, an in/out referendum, was realised by the Conservatives, who could achieve a parliamentary majority, adopting it.
Although their parliamentary representation was only ever tiny and Farage never had a Westminster seat, UKIP achieved everything they wanted.
Brexit Party
After May’s 2016 coronation she spent almost three years trying to get a withdrawal agreement through Parliament, whilst losing her majority in 2017.
By early 2019 it was clear that the UK would have to participate in the European Parliament elections and Farage, leading the recently formed Brexit Party, swept the board coming first with 30.5%, pushing the Conservatives into fifth with 8.8%.
After replacing May, Johnson made the Conservatives into a Brexit party, seeking to consolidate the Leave vote, including removing the whip from twenty-one europhile Conservative MPs.
This paid dividends as the Conservatives went on to win a majority in December 2019, helped by Farage standing down candidates in 317 Conservative held seats.
Johnson would “Get Brexit Done” early in 2020.
Reform UK
In January 2021 the Brexit Party became Reform UK, which could be described as a “General Grievance” or “Broken Britain” party, settling in the pack of small parties usually polling in single figures.
By-elections were contested without success but parliamentary representation was achieved when Anderson defected in March 2024.
The turnaround came a month before the 2024 election when Farage decided to lead the campaign and contest Clacton, declaring that ”it should be the immigration election”.
As expected Labour won a majority comparable to Blair’s.
Reform secured five MPs, including Farage, from 14.3% of the vote which is extremely creditable considering the campaign only hit its stride on his arrival.
They also achieved 98 second places, 89 to Labour, and in almost 180 seats their vote was more than the Labour majority over the Conservatives.
Although it cannot be assumed that every Reform vote would have gone to the Conservatives it’s not difficult to contemplate them having over 200 rather than 121 seats. This wouldn’t have prevented a Labour victory as the electorate turned the Conservatives off before Sunak became PM, but it would have reduced the magnitude of the defeat, and must be seen as a serious error in the calling of the election.
– Firstly, Sunak had demonstrably failed to control immigration; small boat crossings since he became prime minister hit 50,000 the week before the election – with the Rwanda plan still to become operational – and it took two years of net legal migration exceeding 700k before action was taken.
– Secondly, Farage was anticipating helping Trump in the run up to the US election in November which would have taken him out of British politics after the summer.
Had Sunak seriously prioritised reducing immigration, legal as well as illegal, he may have pulled the rug out from under Farage. As it was he gave him a stick with which he beat the Conservatives.
Reform are now firmly on the national stage and can target seats held by Labour as the scale of their victory means many small majorities and to gain ”117 seats to become the second party in Parliament, Reform would have needed an extra 672,947 votes in the seats where they came closest to the winning party. Put another way, it would require 336,474 people to switch to Reform from the party that won those seats – just 0.7 per cent of the electorate”.
Like its predecessors Reform is essentially a one man band and one trick pony, immigration is the “hook” on which other issues are hung. Why is there a housing crisis? Why are there long NHS waiting lists? Because there’s too much immigration! It’s a truth.
Labour now controls the levers of power and were they to prioritise really reducing immigration, legal and illegal, it might neutralise Reform.
Many on the left see immigrants as refugees/asylum seekers, the right see them as economic migrants. In reality they’re both and the proportion varies, there will always be those with no right to come.
The realities of government may influence thinking. A baby born today will need a school place at a known time in the future, a migrant child needs one now, and may also need English lessons.
Labour misunderstands basic economics. People smugglers exist because there are migrants wanting to cross, migrants don’t decide to cross because there are people smugglers.
As recently as October 2019 the bodies of thirty nine Vietnamese were found in a lorry trailer. Preventing migrants crossing in lorries created a demand elsewhere which the people smugglers satisfied.
Whilst “smashing the gangs” is a laudable aim, as long as there’s a demand it’s whack-a-mole. Improving application processing is also worthwhile but those rejected are customers for the smugglers.
When Albanians found they were buying a ticket back to Albania they largely disappeared. Similarly, it’s difficult to contemplate anyone buying a ticket to Rwanda – although that’ll never be tested.
Time will tell if Labour is more successful than the Conservatives in dealing with the small boats, but the omens are poor, and although the actions taken by the previous Conservative administration will lower the legal numbers it’s uncertain whether there is the political will to further reduce them.
Immigration may be as much of a running sore for Labour as it was for the Conservatives, and grist for Farage’s mill, who’s now leader of a (minor) party in parliament which gives him another platform.
Reform UK – the future
“Marmite character” could have been invented for Farage who’s both revered and reviled making him important to, but also a limiting factor for, Reform. His leadership has been crucial for UKIP, the Brexit Party and Reform but, like the SDP/Alliance/LibDems, his parties have struggled to get a quarter of the popular vote. Even the exceptional 30.5% in the 2019 European elections is a way short of the 40-45% usually needed to form a government.
Minor parties are squeezed during elections as they’re not going to form a government, so have to find ways of getting attention. In 2024 Davey and the LibDems undertook a series of, sometimes silly, stunts – but they got media coverage. Farage repeated a crass comment about NATO’s expansion “encouraging” Putin to invade Ukraine which is unlikely to have helped him or Reform. Sometimes, any publicity isn’t good publicity!
There’s a sizeable operation which despises Farage as much as Johnson and Trump, and will take any opportunity to paint Reform in the worst possible light, necessitating a system to deal with issues quickly, undesirables have to be out so fast their feet don’t touch the ground. Defectors may bring knowledge and experience, but might have been pushed or jumped as they were extremists/bigots. The 2024 election demonstrated this for the Greens who had an influx of Corbynistas after 2019.
Constituency organisations to build towards the next General Election need establishing. They will have to finance and contest local government elections when there’s little national publicity and a third might vote.
These are frequently used to bash Westminster governments; in 2022 the Conservatives lost 485 councillors and control of 11 councils, in 2023 1063 councillors and control of 48 councils and in 2024 474 councillors and control of 10 councils.
In opposition they’ll anticipate recovering many of those 2022 councillors and 69 councils, but this could depend upon Reform. Their local government representation is currently tiny (two!) but at present they’re largely fishing in the same pond as the Conservatives.
Reform will be an important subject during the Conservative leadership contest. Between them they had a greater share of the vote than Labour, although this is very simplistic as Reform’s support didn’t all come from the Conservatives.
The Conservatives have historically benefited from being the predominant party of the centre-right, and it can be argued that the SDP/Alliance/LibDems were their useful idiots in the 1980s.
The 2024 General Election showed how Reform helped Labour’s landslide, they could become Labour’s useful idiots.
It’s uncertain how Sunak’s successor will approach Reform but, in addition to 121 MPs, the Conservatives have a nationwide organisation, and over 5000 councillors. Many Conservatives saw their general election candidate, sometimes a sitting MP, defeated with Reform’s vote greater than the margin of victory.
History suggests that, with the exception of Labour in the early 20th century, insurgents don’t supplant an existing party, they change it:
– The ascent of Kinnock effectively finished the SDP.
– Even had the 2016 referendum been lost it would have probably been the end of UKIP.
– Johnson replacing May marked the end of the Brexit Party.
Notwithstanding that, and despite the abuse heaped on Farage over the years:
– UKIP was at least partly responsible for Cameron promising a referendum, the loss of which triggered his resignation.
– The 2019 European elections victory by the Brexit Party contributed to the replacement of May by Johnson.
– Standing down Brexit Party candidates for the 2019 General Election ensured Johnson’s landslide.
– Taking the lead in the 2024 Reform election campaign helped convert a Labour victory into a landslide.
Anyone underestimating Farage does it at their peril, there may be another laugh to be had!
