Keir Starmer has been called “Captain Hindsight”. The label is not unfair. Back in April he was demanding that the government publish an “exit strategy” for a pandemic that was still running its course, no vaccination was in sight, and few knew the full extent of what we were facing. But it played well with the public because we wanted to be told there was an exit. As we now know, there was absolutely no way back in April any responsible government could have issued an exit strategy, because over 6 months later – n the month we administered the first vaccinations – we still are not entirely sure what the dynamics of the pandemic are. The Chief Scientific Advisor, Sir Patrick Vallance is still warning that face masks may still be required this time next year.
Nevertheless, there are those who expect god-like wisdom and fore-knowledge from the government. Keir Starmer, for example, said explicitly in September that failure to prevent a second wave would be a political failure, not an epidemiological one and would be a direct consequence of the government failing to take mitigating measures in time. His supporters posited that Boris Johnson cared more about, inter alia, ‘herd immunity’, pleasing his mates in business by keeping the economy open, and appeasing his libertarian supporter base who opposed a second lockdown.
Tugging on sanctimony with a cynicism one can only conclude was found in a playbook abandoned in a basement by Seamus Milne before his exit, Starmer appeared to be blaming the government for Christmas bereavements, as the death-count hit 60,000:
He tweeted: “This is a heartbreaking milestone and we know it did not have to be this way. My thoughts are with all those families who will spend Christmas remembering those loved ones who are no longer with us.”
The insinuation is that his government would have saved lives, while this one was either callously indifferent or criminally irresponsible and incompetent. The reality is – as I have said before – that our government and its scientific and medical advisors are trying to do the best in impossible conditions, managing a novel virus with hazy data, while balancing the impact on society, education and, crucially, the economy. It is an impossible and thankless task. Or, so a reasonable person might conclude, but Keir Starmer believes he has the answers, despite keeping the answer cards close to his chest.
Critics of this drip-drip of vacuous criticism called, largely in vain, for Labour to outline a strategy of its own. How would their policy approach be different to what the government was doing? Eventually they landed on the right catch-phrase. And what was the key policy difference: Labour supported a different sort of lockdown: a “fire break”, or “circuit-breaker”, which they said would mean avoiding a full lockdown. That’s what they would do were they in government.
But of course, the one region of the United Kingdom that does have a Labour government is Wales, and the ‘circuit-breaker’ strategy is precisely what they followed.
‘Splendid,’ I thought, ‘now we’ll be able to see theory made practice.’ And, it is not just me who thinks that what happens in Wales is a dry-run for what would happen nationally if Labour were in power. Starmer thinks so himself. In September he tweeted: “Labour Mayors and the Welsh First Minister are showing the difference we make when we’re in power.”
And of course, those who have it in for Boris Johnson’s government were just as excited.
Labour insisted that the circuit-breaker was backed by “medical professionals”
Press reports showed the Labour Leader posed in a photo-op with Mark Drakeford, the First Minister of Wales as the pending demonstration of the ‘alternative strategy’ was anticipated.
People like media buffoon Piers Morgan weighed in:
People accusing @Keir_Starmer of ‘playing politics’ with his call for a circuit break lockdown don’t seem to understand that he’s the one endorsing the SAGE advice and it’s Boris ‘I follow the science’ Johnson who’s playing politics & ignoring it.
Heavier weights like London mayor Sadiq Khan did too, tweeting:
“Agree with @Keir_Starmer. A short, national ‘circuit break’ – as advised by the experts on SAGE – will save lives, protect the NHS and support our economic recovery by preventing longer restrictions that will otherwise be inevitable.”
So Wales tried to ‘break the circuit’ of Covid-19.
It was a disaster.
Wales was, said the BBC, the only part of the UK where infections did not fall, but rather rose.
The failure of the Labour government of Wales was not an act of God. It was a failure of Government. Is that an unfair estimation? I actually think it is, but that is precisely how Keir Starmer characterised the efforts of the UK government to get ahead of the virus, ironically following a marginally more successful strategy than his own. Of a second wave, he told the BBC: “The return of this virus, and the return of restrictions, are not an act of God. They’re a failure of Government.”
This echoed his tweet in October:
“The Government’s serial incompetence means we are losing control of the virus.”
But what is ‘good for the goose…’ as they say. The lockdown in England saw a disappointing one-third decrease in infections. In Labour-run Wales, their strategy produced a catastrophic one-third rise in infections, leading to an even more severe lockdown, which saw even stricter closures and curfews than Labour criticised in England. (as we have previously discussed)
But should anyone blame Keir Starmer, or Welsh Labour first minister Mark Drakeford?
I don’t think so.
What this demonstrates is the central point to all this: all sorts of plans look great on paper and in theory. None of them work to plan in reality. It is easy to sit back and, with hindsight, point fingers at plans that don’t work… which is largely what Starmer’s contribution to the debate has been. But here we have an example of a plan he most likely would have followed had he been in government, and it was a catastrophe.
This should give Keir Starmer pause for thought. It should make him more humble in the face of the pandemic. I don’t think it will.
UPDATE:
Keir Starmer tweeted on 20 September: “Labour Mayors and the Welsh First Minister are showing the difference we make when we’re in power.” This was followed up by a television address in which he stated: “The public are not to blame for a resurgence of coronavirus and have been let down by the government.” This was in response to PM Boris Johnson urging the public to stick to the rules and saying that relaxing them came at a cost.
Labour MP Angela Rayner, repeated the accusation during PMQs.
But, following the fiasco in Labour-led Wales which followed Starmer’s “failed circuit-breaker” idea and the virus surging in London under the watch of Labour mayor Sadiq Khan, the tune from the Labour camp seems to have changed, with both Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford and Mayor Khan pointing the accusatory finder at the public.
Funny how it is easy to point fingers until you find yourself in the same position and find yourself uttering the same excuses.
That said, it was never an excuse, only a fact that “lockdown” fatigue is real and that the spread of the virus is almost entirely down to public behaviour, which becomes less adherent to the rules as we grow weary of the restrictions. Had Labour had the grace to concede this point, they might not look so foolish and hypocritical now.
