In between dunkings in a Cannes toilet, George Papandreou is presumably explaining to Nic and Angie the merits of his proposed referendum for the Greek public on the EU/IMF bailout plan. At the moment, the most likely explanation for the abrupt stalling of the bailout is brinkmanship from Papandreou who may have been banking on the revolting Greek public having been edging towards acceptance of the need for a brutal haircut and would give him some degree of legitimacy.
Not all his Pasok Party see it this way, especially as members – up to and including his finance minister – had not been informed, and the rest of the Greek Parliament and other EU leaders and financial markets still have to come around to his line of thinking. With several Pasok MPs withdrawing support, his nominal majority in Parliament – which would have to approve any referendum – has been reduced to just one with 151 out of 300 MPs.
If he lost any vote, I cannot see his being able to remain in place as Prime Minister. If he won any vote, I cannot see his being seen as anything other than political poison by those EU heads of government with whom the Greek Prime Minister would have to work.
Some figures in Greece appear to welcome the lessening chance of a punitive bailout, with hard-line public sector leaders of the street-protests concluding that fellow EU States always will intervene to prevent a default – and continue the advantageous status of the Greek public sector – because of the threat to the rest of the Euro-zone and non-Euro EU States; even if it meant ruination for them.
The current state of financial affairs in Greece has been decades in the making, with Governments of the Left and Right securing patronage with government and public sector positions. The oft repeated claim of tax avoidance and evasion being endemic within all strata of Greek society is factually accurate. Yet, whilst there are egregious examples of high-end and serial dodgers, many at the lower-end simply are confounded by a lackadaisical system which was not motivated to collect revenue as the State coffers were thought to be there to meet and shortfall.
An electorate which votes for an incompetent and corrupt political system may ultimately be responsible, but when there was no alternative, it arguably is placed in the hands of moirae (what is the Greek for that?).
A prediction and a suggestion that Greek society could be taken back decades have been made. The prediction came from Pasok deputy, Vasso Papandreou (no relation) who warned the economy could regress by 50 years: she called on her namesake to resign and vowed to approach the President Carolos Papoulias to ask him to help form a Government of National Unity, with a General Election after the bailout had been accepted and implemented.
The suggestion came with the immediate sacking of the three Chiefs of Staff, presumably with the fear that a move would be made to ‘stabilize’ the country. Fasten your seat-belts. It still aint over.