So, what happens next?

In July 2006, Hezbollah sent a raiding party into Israel, where it captured Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev. Their aim was to secure the release of a child murderer, Samir Kuntar. The conflict resulted in war with Hezbollah. Kuntar, and a number of other terrorists, were ultimately released in exchange for the bodies of the two soldiers.

Hezbollah fought smart: launching attacks on Israeli civilians from within civilian areas of Lebanon. Similar tactics were used by Hamas during the 2008-9 Gaza conflict.

As a result of the latter conflict, the United Kingdom imposed partial military sanctions on Israel.

No such sanctions were imposed by Iran, on its proxy Hezbollah. A regime which sent little children armed with little plastic ‘keys to paradise‘ has no problem with civilian casualties.

However, United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 – upon which the ceasefire was based – promised “full implementation” of

“the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon, so that, pursuant to the Lebanese cabinet decision of July 27, 2006, there will be no weapons or authority in Lebanon other than that of the Lebanese state.”

Unfortunately, that Resolution has not been implemented at all. Quite the contrary has happened. Two weeks ago one of Hezbollah’s arms dumps exploded:

An arms cache which exploded last week in Hezbollah-controlled territory in south Lebanon was “very active”, a senior UN official has told the BBC.

The official said the existence of the cache was a “serious violation” of the UN resolution that ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.

Last week, a day after the explosion, 14 UN peacekeepers were injured when a crowd of demonstrators threw stones and tried to prevent them from reaching the site.

Speaking after a behind-closed-doors UN briefing, Alejandro Wolff, the US deputy ambassador to the UN, said the stone-throwing seemed to be “quite organised” and “not spontaneous”.

And he said there were “indications” of “providing cover for efforts to remove evidence”.

This morning, we learn that Hezbollah now has 40,000 missiles, including anti-aircraft missiles and rockets capable of reaching Tel Aviv.

So, what happens next.


YossiUK has an answer:

Sadly I suspect that nothing positive will happen next.

When it becomes convenient to do so, and when they have build up their defences (for the terrorists not for the civilians) Hezbollah will unleash it’s weapons onto Israel, and perhaps capture some more soldiers. Israel will respond, and within minutes of that response, there will be an emergency meeting at the UN, so that a fresh condemnation of Israel can be issued.

The international media will wet themselves with excitement at the chance to refocus their attention on their favourite subject, and after a few weeks (or days, after all Obama is now President of the US) the world will demand a ceasefire, and will promise all sorts of disarmament programs as a bid to disguise the truth, that they have pushed a democratic free nation, to cease defending itself against genocidaly motivated terrorists.

Then the charities will campaign for funds to rebuild Lebanon, and the media will run many stories of innocent Lebanese children and women injured or killed in the fighting, while completely refraining from covering a single story or an Israeli woman or child injured or killed.

Needless to say, during this time attacks and abuse against Jews will increase around the world, as posters and graffiti with the legend “kill the Jews” pop up on the walls of cities in both democracies and dictatorships alike.

But perhaps I am being pessimistic, after all Moshiach could arrive even today, and so this gross spectacle may not come about at all.