It seems there are three general general possibilities for tonight’s debate:
1. Sarah Palin will perform brilliantly, astonishing us with the breadth and depth of her knowledge and understanding of foreign and domestic policy. Naaah.
2. Palin will crash and burn, spitting out confused, disconnected phrases and making an utter fool of herself. Possible.
3. Palin will achieve mediocrity, dodging many of the questions but speaking relatively coherently and not saying anything glaringly ridiculous– thus (to use the dread phrase) exceeding expectations (whose?). Most likely.
And Joe Biden will be debating too.
Update: I think Noam Scheiber at TNR makes a key point: that Palin’s alleged folksy appeal to Middle America is more an invention of media commentators than a reflection of reality.
Even if people like her, that doesn’t necessarily mean they want her to be vice president.